I call it the 70% Catch

It has long been held as an absolute truth within AA that a true alcoholic of our sort is never cured but rather is subject to a malady progressive in nature which if left unchecked will only get worse.

Interestingly our position has been scientifically disapproved!

In Washington State I listened to a lecture by a psychologist who conducted an experiment with a sampling of AA's from all over. People sober for more than 1 year some sober for as much as five years. The scientific conclusion; 30% of all alcoholics need not remain in Alcoholics Anonymous and certainly need not remain abstinent from alcohol for the rest of their lives!

Just in case you forgot basic science 101, the following is a gross oversimplification of the scientific method. A method this psychologist followed rigorously.
The steps of the scientific method are:

* Ask a Question:
Is it possible for alcoholics who have been absent for a significant period of time to return to drinking moderately?

* Do Background Research:
Statistical research based on interviews and observations were conducted preliminary to field trial.

* Construct a Hypothesis:
It was believed that many once thought to be alcoholic actually could have been cured by their period of abstinence. Or in spite of their evident symptoms, were never alcoholic in the first place.

* Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment:
Volunteers were selected, men and women, their progress, the amount of drinking they did and their success or failure in moderation was noted.
Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion:
of the volunteer group 30% were able to return to moderate drinking and did not, over a time, return to drinking alcoholically.

* Communicate Your Results: the results were published in scientific journals as an indication that:

* 1. Only some alcoholics are alcoholic for the rest of their lives.

* 2. Alcoholics Anonymous is in error when it states all alcoholics suffer from an incurable, progressive, disease, which will, if left unchecked only get worse never better.

* 3. If in fact alcoholism is indeed a disease, it is not incurable.

* 4. Having been abstinent long enough approximately 1/3 may return to drinking in moderation

This scientific study, utilizing members of Alcoholics Anonymous and other clinically diagnosed Alcoholics proved that, 30% of those who have been sober for five years or longer may return to drinking and may learn do so in moderation, suffering no apparent ill effect.

The big trouble with this particular experiment and its findings isnotthat it disagrees with Alcoholics Anonymous.

AA has been criticized before and survived quite well. It's the catch. You know there's always a catch. It's not that people might leave AA they already do, some come back, some never make it back.

No the catch is that, no scientist, no psychologist, no psychiatrist, however brilliant, however well-trained, how extraordinarily gifted, may walk in to an alcoholics anonymous group pull out a red marker and put a 1/3 the forehead of those who may return to moderate drinking.

Nor can science accurately predict who of the two thirds that return to drinking alcoholically will manage to return to AA and successfully recover again. We certainly do know many will die. We do not know how to stop them all. How many will they kill? In automobile accidents, crime, rage, violence, suicide and all the other things that accompany drinking alcoholically.

The only effect this study had that I am absolutely certain of is, it gave me my own personal excuse, to prove over and over, for over 7 years, that I myself absolutely and positively do not fall in the 1/3 of AA's who may return to moderate drinking. Anyway if you're drinking career was anything like mine and your experiences in recovery only 30% as good as mine have been why would you ever want to return to the old way of life?

There is another issue that has been proven:

The chance is that for every alcoholic that attempts recovery, two thirds will die. My observation has been that many who do return to drinking alcoholically, especially those who have been sober for any length of time begin drinking far more than they ever did and if they do not or cannot return to AA's simple program of living, alcohol is fatal usually within three years.

So who is an alcoholic?

An alcoholic is someone who does not have control over their consumption of alcohol once they begin drinking. The Body, Brain, and Spirit, of the Alcoholic are no longer under their control. Rather they are controlled by a chemical we call ethanol. We lose perspective and regardless of how much willpower a person has, it dissolves in the presence of alcohol.

To compound the problem, Alcoholics, unless they maintain a spiritual relationship that sets their Spirit, Mind including (especially including!) the Emotions and their Body subject to the compulsion to drink. Compulsion begets obsession and with out Divine intervention the Alcoholic will have no control over when they will start drinking. In fact without divine intervention it is never a question of whether an alcoholic will drink it is only a question of when.

Unfortunately when fueled by alcohol certain character defects begin to rule the personality. Some of them include the obvious; violence, rage, and "No body pushes me around attitude" The list goes on but I want to mention possibly the worst, the addiction to drive while drunk.

There are hundreds of others and these defects of character left unchecked ultimately result in death. Death to the alcoholic is tragic enough, the unnecessary death of their unwitting, unwilling victims,horriblytragic.

In short we alcoholics are in the grip of an incurable disease which if left unchecked will inevitably get worse never better. If there really is a one third that completely recovers somewhere along the line (a claim I personally doubt), do you really want to risk it? Do your children want you to risk it? How about your husband, your wife, your mother, your father?

I thought not.